Bitcoin Struggles to Win Over Skeptics: Is It “Too Early” to Call a Bottom?

While Bitcoin approaches a defining moment with a potential US Federal Reserve rate cut, performance fails to convince commentators that Bitcoin is out of the woods.

In a September 15 X post, popular trader Josh Rager expressed skepticism, stating it is “too early” to adopt a clear optimistic stance.

He noted that traders are overly optimistic, with those “calling the ‘first higher-low’” consistently being proven wrong as the Bitcoin chart continues its downtrend, with more room to fall.

However, Rager did leave room for some optimism, not taking a firmly bearish stance by saying, “Not saying a new low comes here.”

Bitcoin’s Bid For Clarity: US Fed Rate Cut To Define Next Move

The looming September 18 US Federal Reserve interest rate decision contributes to Bitcoin’s recent suppressed price action, making identifying a bottom challenging.

The consensus leans toward a rate cut following Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments that the “time has come” for the US Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates. However, the extent of the cut will greatly influence market reactions.

A 25 basis point cut is seen as the more favorable outcome. This could potentially lead to long-term price appreciation for Bitcoin as the jitters about a slowing US economy and the prospects of a recession ease.

This would reaffirm Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which has been noted to have provided strong support throughout the past 20 months of the bull run by pseudonymous trader Jelle on X.

Conversely, a more aggressive 50 basis point rate cut could have a negative effect, heightening recession fears and potentially leading to a significant Bitcoin retracement, with some anticipating a 20% drop.

Bull Market Summer “Chop” Sets Stage For Q4 Gains

Looking wider, other analysts support a Bitcoin bottom in sight, pointing to historical and technical patterns as grounds that the final quarter of this year could be a potential breakout point, with a six-figure Bitcoin “still in play” as we move toward 2025.

Jelle echoed this sentiment in a September 17 X post, suggesting that the current market conditions are part of a typical pattern. He pointed out that ”Bull market summer chop has become a regular occurrence,” citing historical trends.

BTC/USD chart, “summer chop.” Source: Jelle/X

“The previous two chopfests both ended with new highs in the third week of October,”Jelle noted. “We’d be about a month away from new all-time highs if this time plays out the same.”

This forecast aligns with what is expected to be a monumental catalyst: the US presidential election, which is expected to bring new all-time highs due to “positive drivers dominating regardless of the election outcome.”

Meanwhile, altcoins have also been cited as beneficial in the year’s concluding quarter, bringing more gains and opportunities.

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